After more than 30% growth in the air-conditioning industry, will air-conditioning refrigerated in 2012 still have “ups� Aowei Consulting expects that the domestic terminal sales volume in the cold year of 2012 will be around 53.15 million units, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate will drop significantly. Among them, the sales of air-conditioning in the primary and secondary market will be around 38.52 million units, slightly lower than 2011. Cold sales levels.
“The overall market conditions for air conditioning in the next year are not very optimistic.†Industry insiders pointed out that under the influence of factors such as short-term suppression of new real estate policies, rising cost pressures, withdrawal of energy-saving policies for benefiting citizens, and suppression of macroeconomic policies to suppress consumer confidence, etc. The annual air conditioning trend is worrying.
“The impact of real estate policies on the home appliance industry will gradually appear. The demand for air-conditioning will be reduced in the first half of next year and will be detrimental to the entire industry.†The head of Guangbai Electric analyzed that the regulation of the real estate market has a significant effect on curbing inflation, but The demand for air conditioning is obviously constrained.
Compared with the high growth rate of 34.4% in 2011 frozen year, the forecast data for the next year are not very optimistic. Aowei Consulting estimates that the domestic terminal sales volume in the cold year of 2012 will be around 53.15 million units, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate will show a significant drop. The industry generally believes that in the post-policy era, it is of utmost importance to air-conditioning companies, and the motivation for the air-conditioning market after losing policy subsidies is the first issue for manufacturers in the new year.
The reporter learned that on June 1 this year, the energy-saving and benefit-subsidy policy announced its withdrawal after two years of implementation. This also means that consumers can no longer enjoy the government’s subsidy of at least RMB 150 per unit when they purchase energy-saving air conditioners. "As a result of this policy, consumers have turned from their original wait-and-see attitudes to buying and releasing consumption in advance. This is in fact an advance payment for the next year," said the store's analysts.
"In the context of industry capacity growth greater than demand growth, the 2012 frozen market trend will become confusing. Air-conditioning companies are likely to fall into a dilemma." Zhang Yanbin, head of the Ovid Consulting Research Institute, believes that companies are facing an increase The dilemma between price and price cuts, if the price increases, it means that the market share is lost. If it does not increase or decrease, it will also be subject to high raw material prices; on the other hand, companies face the dilemma of how to position products. Is the main push frequency or the main push frequency? In the fixed frequency, it is to select 1, 2 energy efficiency, or choose 3 energy efficiency products. "This dilemma choice will inevitably create difficulties for companies in formulating market strategies," Zhang Yanbin said.
This year, the average air-conditioning price per unit rose 463 yuan. The industry expects air-conditioning prices to rise by 15% next year.
"This year's air-conditioning is really more expensive than in previous years." Xiao Zhang, who is buying air-conditioning, told reporters after they had shopped. The slogan “Air conditioners are subject to price increases†has been tainted by manufacturers and stores for a whole year in a cold period, and has finally appeared under some data. Ovid Consulting AVC recently released a report showing that the average annual sales price of air conditioners in the terminal market during the 2010 refrigerated period was 2,815 yuan per unit, and the average annual price of the 2011 freeze was 3,278 yuan per unit, an average increase of 463 yuan per unit year-on-year, and the average retail price increased by 16.4 percent year-on-year. %.
This year's quietly rising prices last frozen year, influenced by the price hikes of raw materials and the cancellation of energy-saving and livelihood policies, air conditioners have actually increased their prices. According to Ovid Consulting's data, the 2011 frozen industry's annual sales price showed a "wave-like upward trend." "After the cold year of 2011, affected by the drastic shrinkage of subsidy for energy-saving benefits, new average fixed-frequency and second-tier retail prices have risen to varying degrees. After the subsidies shrank, the average fixed-frequency air-conditioning retail price rose 8.3% month-on-month." Consulting analysts said.
Analysis of the industry said that rising raw material prices and consumer demand for air conditioning is the main reason for air-conditioning prices, but the cancellation of energy-saving policies is the fuse of air-conditioning prices. "Air conditioning has secretly raised prices before the sales season." An air conditioning manufacturer insider told the reporter.
Next year's rise in price will be the most immediate concern for consumers to buy air-conditioners. Is it possible that air-conditioning prices will drop in the cold year?
"Air conditioning prices are positive." Expert analysis is expected next year with inflationary pressures, monetary tightening, raw material prices, rising labor costs, logistics and higher sales costs, air-conditioning companies will face greater cost pressures, air-conditioning products next year The price increase is expected to be strong.
Ovid Consulting expects that the overall price of the domestic household air-conditioner market will rise by around 15% in the 2012 freeze-year in the wake of the increase in product prices and the optimization of product mix.
Analysis of the store pointed out that with the popularity of frequency conversion, the energy efficiency of the entire air-conditioning industry is upgrading. Eliminating the past 4,5 energy-efficient air-conditioning, the current sales of air-conditioning are mostly energy-saving and environmentally friendly. In the future, the share of frequency conversion will increase, and the average unit price of air conditioners will also increase.
Rising prices did not increase corporate profits in the industry's rapid growth in the case of Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Electric Appliances, both leading sales revenue have also achieved substantial growth, but its gross margin and net profit are declining, from the earnings report, it seems that Not to air conditioning prices for the business benefits.
Gree Electric Co., Ltd. 2011 mid-year financial report showed that air-conditioning sales of 37.204 billion yuan, an increase of 61.86%, of which exports 9.291 billion yuan, an increase of 61.78%. However, Gree's gross profit margin level is showing a downward trend. At the end of 2010, it was 22.54%. At the end of 2009, it was 24.86%, and by the middle of 2011 it was 15.34%.
In the first quarter of 2011, Midea’s gross profit margin also decreased by 0.61 percentage point. The growth rate of net profit also decreased from 69.24% at the end of 2010 to 17.53% in the first quarter of this year.
"From the financial reports of Gree, Midea, Haier, Hisense Kelon and Chunlan 5 listed companies, it can be seen that most brands have experienced a decline in profitability in 2011." Han Wei, director of Ovid Consulting White Goods Center, believes that the main reason is that Inflationary pressures have continued to increase and operating costs have continued to increase. In addition, there has also been a significant contraction in subsidies for energy-saving benefits. After the expiry of the subsidy in June 2011, consumers could no longer enjoy at least 150 yuan per set of government subsidies when purchasing energy-saving air conditioners.
2012 Three Years of Refrigeration Year Air Conditioning Market Conjectures Expansion of Third and Fourth Level Markets In the blue sea industry, it is generally believed that under the constraints of many factors, it is difficult for the domestic market to reproduce the rapid growth trend in 2011, and manufacturers will focus on the third and fourth level markets. The pioneering. The tertiary and tertiary markets will become the main engines that will drive the rapid growth of the domestic market.
According to Han Wei, director of research at Alva Consulting White Power, there are only 15 home air conditioners in rural areas and the potential for growth is huge. In the cold year of 2012, air-conditioning manufacturers will battle the 3rd and 4th markets. Aowei Consulting expects that sales of household air conditioners in the 3rd and 4th grade markets will reach around 14.3 million units in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 41%, accounting for around 27% of the national market, up 6.5 percentage points.
Frequency conversion and fixed frequency air conditioning will coexist for a long time. “Inverter air conditioners will grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 12% per year in the future. In 2015, inverter air conditioners share will reach or exceed 70%.†Industry players are optimistic about the frequency conversion market, but analysis The current industry conditions, fixed-frequency air-conditioning still occupy a larger share. Level 3 energy-efficiency fixed-frequency products will play an important role in the popular market because they have a certain price advantage.
Ovid Consulting stated that in the 2012 frozen year, the sales volume of Class 3 fixed-frequency air-conditioners will reach 32.8%. The industry believes that fixed-frequency air-conditioning 3 absolute advantage, but it is mainly used to "take the amount", with the inverter air-conditioning environmental protection and energy-saving technology deeply rooted, mature technology, inverter air-conditioning will be the absolute trump card, "from the fixed frequency The transition from air conditioners to inverter air conditioners is a long process and cannot be accomplished overnight."
Layout of New Refrigerants and Fighting for Technology In the near-end of the cold year of 2011, Gree and Midea, two air-conditioner leading companies in China, announced the research results of air-conditioning refrigerant replacement. Today, with regard to energy-saving and emission-reduction, in the development of new refrigerants, several major domestic manufacturers are bound to have a new round of dark warfare.
Currently used in the air conditioning industry refrigerants, R22 has a destructive effect on the ozone layer, will gradually be eliminated. At present, as the replacement refrigerant for the transition period, the patent rights of R410A are in the hands of Honeywell, DuPont, and Daikin. The domestic companies are subject to certain restrictions. Therefore, having their own refrigerant technology has become the focus of air-conditioning technology. Gree introduced the world's first hydrocarbon refrigerant R290 refrigerant air-conditioning to achieve mass production, and the United States also launched R32, R290, R161 three new environmentally-friendly refrigerant air conditioning, Haier's fluorine-free inverter slogan also hit the market.
Reporters noted in the store, many manufacturers have already played "new refrigerant" propaganda slogan, 80% of air conditioners shown in the new inverter air conditioner. However, consumers are still confused about professional symbols such as "R22," "R410a," and "R290." All kinds of conceptual disputes among manufacturers have been surging. It is foreseeable that in the 2012 freezing year, the competition for new refrigerant technologies will intensify.
“The overall market conditions for air conditioning in the next year are not very optimistic.†Industry insiders pointed out that under the influence of factors such as short-term suppression of new real estate policies, rising cost pressures, withdrawal of energy-saving policies for benefiting citizens, and suppression of macroeconomic policies to suppress consumer confidence, etc. The annual air conditioning trend is worrying.
“The impact of real estate policies on the home appliance industry will gradually appear. The demand for air-conditioning will be reduced in the first half of next year and will be detrimental to the entire industry.†The head of Guangbai Electric analyzed that the regulation of the real estate market has a significant effect on curbing inflation, but The demand for air conditioning is obviously constrained.
Compared with the high growth rate of 34.4% in 2011 frozen year, the forecast data for the next year are not very optimistic. Aowei Consulting estimates that the domestic terminal sales volume in the cold year of 2012 will be around 53.15 million units, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate will show a significant drop. The industry generally believes that in the post-policy era, it is of utmost importance to air-conditioning companies, and the motivation for the air-conditioning market after losing policy subsidies is the first issue for manufacturers in the new year.
The reporter learned that on June 1 this year, the energy-saving and benefit-subsidy policy announced its withdrawal after two years of implementation. This also means that consumers can no longer enjoy the government’s subsidy of at least RMB 150 per unit when they purchase energy-saving air conditioners. "As a result of this policy, consumers have turned from their original wait-and-see attitudes to buying and releasing consumption in advance. This is in fact an advance payment for the next year," said the store's analysts.
"In the context of industry capacity growth greater than demand growth, the 2012 frozen market trend will become confusing. Air-conditioning companies are likely to fall into a dilemma." Zhang Yanbin, head of the Ovid Consulting Research Institute, believes that companies are facing an increase The dilemma between price and price cuts, if the price increases, it means that the market share is lost. If it does not increase or decrease, it will also be subject to high raw material prices; on the other hand, companies face the dilemma of how to position products. Is the main push frequency or the main push frequency? In the fixed frequency, it is to select 1, 2 energy efficiency, or choose 3 energy efficiency products. "This dilemma choice will inevitably create difficulties for companies in formulating market strategies," Zhang Yanbin said.
This year, the average air-conditioning price per unit rose 463 yuan. The industry expects air-conditioning prices to rise by 15% next year.
"This year's air-conditioning is really more expensive than in previous years." Xiao Zhang, who is buying air-conditioning, told reporters after they had shopped. The slogan “Air conditioners are subject to price increases†has been tainted by manufacturers and stores for a whole year in a cold period, and has finally appeared under some data. Ovid Consulting AVC recently released a report showing that the average annual sales price of air conditioners in the terminal market during the 2010 refrigerated period was 2,815 yuan per unit, and the average annual price of the 2011 freeze was 3,278 yuan per unit, an average increase of 463 yuan per unit year-on-year, and the average retail price increased by 16.4 percent year-on-year. %.
This year's quietly rising prices last frozen year, influenced by the price hikes of raw materials and the cancellation of energy-saving and livelihood policies, air conditioners have actually increased their prices. According to Ovid Consulting's data, the 2011 frozen industry's annual sales price showed a "wave-like upward trend." "After the cold year of 2011, affected by the drastic shrinkage of subsidy for energy-saving benefits, new average fixed-frequency and second-tier retail prices have risen to varying degrees. After the subsidies shrank, the average fixed-frequency air-conditioning retail price rose 8.3% month-on-month." Consulting analysts said.
Analysis of the industry said that rising raw material prices and consumer demand for air conditioning is the main reason for air-conditioning prices, but the cancellation of energy-saving policies is the fuse of air-conditioning prices. "Air conditioning has secretly raised prices before the sales season." An air conditioning manufacturer insider told the reporter.
Next year's rise in price will be the most immediate concern for consumers to buy air-conditioners. Is it possible that air-conditioning prices will drop in the cold year?
"Air conditioning prices are positive." Expert analysis is expected next year with inflationary pressures, monetary tightening, raw material prices, rising labor costs, logistics and higher sales costs, air-conditioning companies will face greater cost pressures, air-conditioning products next year The price increase is expected to be strong.
Ovid Consulting expects that the overall price of the domestic household air-conditioner market will rise by around 15% in the 2012 freeze-year in the wake of the increase in product prices and the optimization of product mix.
Analysis of the store pointed out that with the popularity of frequency conversion, the energy efficiency of the entire air-conditioning industry is upgrading. Eliminating the past 4,5 energy-efficient air-conditioning, the current sales of air-conditioning are mostly energy-saving and environmentally friendly. In the future, the share of frequency conversion will increase, and the average unit price of air conditioners will also increase.
Rising prices did not increase corporate profits in the industry's rapid growth in the case of Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Electric Appliances, both leading sales revenue have also achieved substantial growth, but its gross margin and net profit are declining, from the earnings report, it seems that Not to air conditioning prices for the business benefits.
Gree Electric Co., Ltd. 2011 mid-year financial report showed that air-conditioning sales of 37.204 billion yuan, an increase of 61.86%, of which exports 9.291 billion yuan, an increase of 61.78%. However, Gree's gross profit margin level is showing a downward trend. At the end of 2010, it was 22.54%. At the end of 2009, it was 24.86%, and by the middle of 2011 it was 15.34%.
In the first quarter of 2011, Midea’s gross profit margin also decreased by 0.61 percentage point. The growth rate of net profit also decreased from 69.24% at the end of 2010 to 17.53% in the first quarter of this year.
"From the financial reports of Gree, Midea, Haier, Hisense Kelon and Chunlan 5 listed companies, it can be seen that most brands have experienced a decline in profitability in 2011." Han Wei, director of Ovid Consulting White Goods Center, believes that the main reason is that Inflationary pressures have continued to increase and operating costs have continued to increase. In addition, there has also been a significant contraction in subsidies for energy-saving benefits. After the expiry of the subsidy in June 2011, consumers could no longer enjoy at least 150 yuan per set of government subsidies when purchasing energy-saving air conditioners.
2012 Three Years of Refrigeration Year Air Conditioning Market Conjectures Expansion of Third and Fourth Level Markets In the blue sea industry, it is generally believed that under the constraints of many factors, it is difficult for the domestic market to reproduce the rapid growth trend in 2011, and manufacturers will focus on the third and fourth level markets. The pioneering. The tertiary and tertiary markets will become the main engines that will drive the rapid growth of the domestic market.
According to Han Wei, director of research at Alva Consulting White Power, there are only 15 home air conditioners in rural areas and the potential for growth is huge. In the cold year of 2012, air-conditioning manufacturers will battle the 3rd and 4th markets. Aowei Consulting expects that sales of household air conditioners in the 3rd and 4th grade markets will reach around 14.3 million units in 2012, a year-on-year increase of 41%, accounting for around 27% of the national market, up 6.5 percentage points.
Frequency conversion and fixed frequency air conditioning will coexist for a long time. “Inverter air conditioners will grow at a compound annual growth rate of around 12% per year in the future. In 2015, inverter air conditioners share will reach or exceed 70%.†Industry players are optimistic about the frequency conversion market, but analysis The current industry conditions, fixed-frequency air-conditioning still occupy a larger share. Level 3 energy-efficiency fixed-frequency products will play an important role in the popular market because they have a certain price advantage.
Ovid Consulting stated that in the 2012 frozen year, the sales volume of Class 3 fixed-frequency air-conditioners will reach 32.8%. The industry believes that fixed-frequency air-conditioning 3 absolute advantage, but it is mainly used to "take the amount", with the inverter air-conditioning environmental protection and energy-saving technology deeply rooted, mature technology, inverter air-conditioning will be the absolute trump card, "from the fixed frequency The transition from air conditioners to inverter air conditioners is a long process and cannot be accomplished overnight."
Layout of New Refrigerants and Fighting for Technology In the near-end of the cold year of 2011, Gree and Midea, two air-conditioner leading companies in China, announced the research results of air-conditioning refrigerant replacement. Today, with regard to energy-saving and emission-reduction, in the development of new refrigerants, several major domestic manufacturers are bound to have a new round of dark warfare.
Currently used in the air conditioning industry refrigerants, R22 has a destructive effect on the ozone layer, will gradually be eliminated. At present, as the replacement refrigerant for the transition period, the patent rights of R410A are in the hands of Honeywell, DuPont, and Daikin. The domestic companies are subject to certain restrictions. Therefore, having their own refrigerant technology has become the focus of air-conditioning technology. Gree introduced the world's first hydrocarbon refrigerant R290 refrigerant air-conditioning to achieve mass production, and the United States also launched R32, R290, R161 three new environmentally-friendly refrigerant air conditioning, Haier's fluorine-free inverter slogan also hit the market.
Reporters noted in the store, many manufacturers have already played "new refrigerant" propaganda slogan, 80% of air conditioners shown in the new inverter air conditioner. However, consumers are still confused about professional symbols such as "R22," "R410a," and "R290." All kinds of conceptual disputes among manufacturers have been surging. It is foreseeable that in the 2012 freezing year, the competition for new refrigerant technologies will intensify.
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